Tamar Kasriel is a futurist and author of Could: The Smart Thinking Handbook for When Nothing Is Certain.
In this conversation, Tamar traces her unconventional path, from studying history at Oxford to teaching English in rural Japan to advising some of the world’s biggest brands on what’s coming next. Along the way, she explains why the skills she learned studying historiography (the study of how history is written) are surprisingly useful in an age of disinformation, and why the goal of futures work isn’t prediction. It’s readiness.
We explore why multiple truths can coexist, why pessimism has no predictive advantage, and why agency, not certainty, is what leaders actually need right now.
This is Part One of two conversations. In Part Two, we’ll dive deeper into the ideas in Tamar’s book.
| Timecode | Topic |
|---|---|
| 00:02:00 | Tamar’s unconventional path: history at Oxford, choosing between French/history/maths |
| 00:03:00 | Historiography: the study of the study of history, and why humanities skills matter in an age of disinformation |
| 00:05:00 | The JET Program: teaching English in rural Japan |
| 00:06:00 | V&A exhibition as a childhood spark for curiosity about Japan |
| 00:07:00 | “History doesn’t repeat itself, it rhymes” / Steve Jobs reference |
| 00:08:00 | Human brains can cope with blurriness; multiple truths can coexist (Guns, Germs & Steel example) |
| 00:09:00 | Causes of WWI: multiple valid explanations |
| 00:10:00 | Short-form culture reduces space for holding multiple truths |
| 00:10:00 | Guardian “Points of View” ad |
| 00:13:00 | “Retail is the sharp end of consumption” |
| 00:14:00 | Shops as places where you see humanity differently |
| 00:15:00 | Shops as microcosm of human interaction |
| 00:16:00 | Death of physical retail was over-prophesied |
| 00:19:00 | Cool Britannia as “lipstick on a pig” |
| 00:20:00 | Steve Jobs and attribution error: many factors made Apple |
| 00:21:00 | Selfridges as global retail reference point; Vittorio Radice’s vision |
| 00:23:00 | Selfridges critique: “They’ve gone wrong” with short-termism |
| 00:25:00 | “Race to the top is actually a race to the bottom” |
| 00:26:00 | Coca-Cola project: predicting companies would become political |
| 00:27:00 | Trend-spotting in the age of data overload |
| 00:28:00 | “It’s not about being right, it’s about being ready” |
| 00:29:00 | Why scenario planning processes matter more than the output |
| 00:30:00 | The future is different for Nestlé vs. Unilever vs. individual business units |
| 00:32:00 | Long-term thinking (5-10 years) is liberating because it’s not about personal stakes |
| 00:33:00 | Readiness as passive vs. active: the debate begins |
| 00:35:00 | Tamar’s definition of readiness: training, preparation, agility |
| 00:36:00 | Finding strategies that work across multiple scenarios (risk-spreading) |
| 00:37:00 | COVID and supermarkets: scenario planning for SARS paid off |
| 00:39:00 | Futurescaping (2012): scenario planning for individuals |
| 00:42:00 | Success = helping people reconnect with why they go to work |
| 00:43:00 | Could as manifesto for the moment: “when nothing is certain” |
| 00:44:00 | Herman Kahn and the “Megadeath Intellectuals”: origins of scenario planning |
| 00:45:00 | Humans have adapted through industrial revolution, WWI, printing press |
| 00:46:00 | “The future’s always looked a bit like this” |
| 00:47:00 | Why “Could” not “Should” or “Will”: uncertainty + possibility of positive outcome |
| 00:48:00 | Josh Brown / “What could go right” vs. “What could go wrong” |
| 00:49:00 | Agency and intentional optimism as leadership theory |
| 00:50:00 | “Pessimism has no predictive advantage” |
| 00:50:00 | Thoughtful, willed optimism vs. toxic positivity |
| 00:53:00 | “Manifesto is not prophecy”; determinism vs. openness to uncertainty |
| 00:54:00 | Pressure on leaders to project false certainty |
| 00:55:00 | “Agency comes with accountability”; “No decision is also a decision” |
| 00:56:00 | Final distinction: passive readiness vs. active readiness with agency |
Socials
Linkedin https://www.linkedin.com/in/tamarkasriel/
Website https://www.tamarkasriel.com/
Links
Could: The Smart Thinking Handbook for When Nothing Is Certain.
