Tamar === [00:00:00] Tamar: when it comes to the stuff that we could potentially have agency in. Thoughtful, as you say, intentional optimism, which is not sort of toxic positivity, you know, about sort of delusional, ignoring the fact that your house is burning down and there's a monster in your garden, or whatever it is. But thoughtful willed, intentional optimism is definitely an advantage. Plus it's, it's a more pleasant mental space to inhabit as well day to day. What do you do when nothing feels certain? Most conversations about the future cell clarity, predictions, roadmaps, but my guest today thinks that's exactly the wrong approach. Tamar Kasriel is a futurist and the author of Could the Smart Thinking Handbook for When Nothing Feels Certain. She spent decades advising some of the world's biggest [00:01:00] organizations, not by predicting what's coming, but by helping them get ready for whatever does. We talk about why history teaches you to hold multiple truths at once. Why pessimism has no predictive advantage and why readiness isn't waiting its action. Now this is part one of two conversations. If you're looking for certainty, this might unsettle you, but if you're looking for agency, stay with me and Tamar. I'm Mark Fallows, and this is the Impossible Network. Mark 2024: ​Tamar, welcome to the Impossible Network Podcast. Tamar: Thank you. Happy to be here. Yep. Mark 2024: All, all the way from, somewhere in England. Tamar: Yeah. At the moment, somewhere in England in Cambridge here near Cambridge at the moment. Mark 2024: Okay, excellent. Let's get started, Tamar. we're gonna have two interviews. 'cause you're about to launch a book we'll do the deep dive into the book in the second. Interview that we'll probably do post the book launch, people that can go and read your LinkedIn and [00:02:00] realize the journey you've been on, and I think it's been fascinating in, in a funny sort of way. there are parallels to, we've both worked in a complimentary career path and me in working in advertising where we used to tap into the, the big brains of people like you to tell us where the future was gonna go so we could start to sell products. to People they don't need for money, they don't have. you ended up at the Henley Center, but you studied history at Oxford and you went on to do Japanese. How on earth did you go from history? And Japanese into that career path. Was that a conscious decision? Tamar: no, it wasn't. And what I, what I sort of love about the way you frame this isyou make it look like, and I can tell myself that, that it was all very tidy and planned. it all makes logical sense. But actually that's, that's not true at all. So in fact, I was thinking about this. And I did French history and maths a [00:03:00] level, and I could have chosen any one of those things, possibly to, to continue to study. 'Cause I, I liked all of them and I couldn't choose. And the really positive. Uh, interpretation of that might be that I'm some kind of polymath, but actually it's not. It's, I was just really confused. And, ultimately I decided I wanted to study history, but I was also very interested in the historiography, which is kind of the, the study of the study of history and understanding how that's done. And I'm not sure if, if you are planning to talk a bit about, , ai, I imagine it might come up somewhere, but thinking about it, I was thinking that that actually, even though there's a real crisis in people studying humanities at the moment, certainly in this country, some of the skills that you learn studying history are really, really very useful. Because it's [00:04:00] about thoughtful analysis, obviously pattern spotting trends, it's about understanding that the same story can be told in many different ways. And fundamentally, it's asking about when you see a source, whatever it is. It's about asking who wrote this and why. What was their interest? What was their vested interest in all of this, which is actually a really useful set of critical thinking skills to have in an age of disinformation. So I think that there's quite a lot in there that has been quite useful in terms of an outlook and a, and a perspective. the bit I really love most, I think ultimately was sort of 19th century European history. what's so fantastic about 19th Century is obviously you've had, you have had the printing press for a while. There's this absolute explosion in first person accounts of how people feel in fiction, in [00:05:00] nonfiction, all sorts of things. Um,. I enjoyed that and it was useful. The Japanese is because when it came to the end of my degree, I didn't know at all what I wanted to do. And they, they had then, I dunno if it still exists, but they had the sort of the milk ground, which was when companies would come around to universities and kind of. Put on little events with some sort of food and drink and try and persuade you that you really wanted to join whatever consultancy, whatever. I find Fano really, uh, not quite alienating. didn't feel comfortable in their I don't think they would've chosen me either. And then I discovered this thing called the JET Program, which I think still exists. Which is this amazing Japanese government program where you get sort of sponsored, paid well and you are flown out to Japan and, it's a yearly contract that you can renew to go and teach [00:06:00] English in Japanese state schools. So I went and did that for a couple of years and absolutely loved it. And I was staying somewhere. Which was an hour's plane ride away from Tokyo. And that meant that very, very few people spoke English. Uh, unfortunately, including some of the English teachers couldn't speak English at all, but they could read and write it really beautifully. And that sort of sparked my interest in Japan and Japanese culture and Japanese. And as a result of that, I went on to do a master's. In Japanese language and culture. So I wanted to go deeper into it, but I'm afraid I can't come up with a nice, tidy, logical thread between the history and the, and the Japanese. And I hadn't in fact studied any Japanese history before I went. Although I think somewhere deep in my mind there was, uh, an interest fired up [00:07:00] by, uh, an exhibition at the Victorian Albert Museum. Decades ago that I went to as a child, I think, and it was also beautiful and different and interesting that that kind of germ of curiosity about Japan remained there. Mark 2024: Uh, that's quite fascinating. Well, I'm gonna come onto that 'cause it that what you, just, the way you explained that Tamar: I. Mark 2024: non-linear. Path that you've taken reinforces something that Steve Jobs said. One of his commencement speech, but I'll come back to that later. I can't remember who said it, that history doesn't repeat itself, it rhymes. I, I've never heard someone talk about the study of history, Tamar: The Stu. Yeah. It was kind of the study of the study of history. Yeah. It's the meta, it's the meta philosophy of, it's a philosophy of history. It's a Mark 2024: I hadn't thought about this. So many things you hear today on some of these. Crazy podcasts, almost rewriting history. And you go, well, what is truth if you know one person's view of history is is different to another person? So when you start to question the very nature of what you're [00:08:00] taught or what you read makes you question the very reality of what we're the life we're living today. how do you end up clarifying, saying, okay, this is the closest reality to what happened in the past. Tamar: Well, that? I. if we try and sort of unpack some of that actually, although we prefer as humans, we prefer tidiness and clarity. Actually, I believe that our brains, most people, brains can cope quite happily and function well with blurriness. In certain spaces, and actually with history as, as, as you described it, the stu, the study of history, I think it's quite possible to appreciate that the same set of events can be seen quite differently and drawn quite differently. So there was that whole rush of. Books [00:09:00] about 10 years ago, which described what made the world and, and I forget, uh, Jared Diamond. He said it was guns, germs, and steel. And then somebody else says it's about drinks. And somebody else says, actually, it's all, it's all decided by climate. And they're all right. None, none of them are wrong. And fairly early on, and I think it's still probably the case today, if you are looking, say at GCSE history, you might look at, the causes of the First World War. And you could say it was a shock fired by the assassin that killed Arch Duke, France Ferdinand or whatever. And that was, but actually quite early on, you start to see, well there were all sorts of other things going on that meant that maybe, uh, a catastrophic World War was on the cards. And if it hadn't been that shot, it might have been something else. And. Being able to see that all of those different accounts have a kind of [00:10:00] element of truth in them, and it's just a different angle to look at. The same thing is a really useful human skill to have, I think, and what's problematic, and I'm slightly jumping and making about to make a really massive, sweeping statement, but. As culture gets more and more short form, then there is less and less space for this kind of blurriness, which allows for a different version of the same thing to be held in space together. But it's, they're all true. Mark 2024: in the 1980s, there was an ad from the Guardian called Points of View. So it was basically it was a skinhead. Running down the street looking really angry and threatening. And you see a businessman in London with his bowler hat and his briefcase walking along. You think the skin head's going to knock him out. And as he gets closer and closer, you [00:11:00] then start to see that there are bricks falling from a building. And then the final scene, you see the Tamar: Yes, Mark 2024: him. Tamar: do. Mark 2024: Yeah. Tamar: I do. I thought Mark 2024: I said. Tamar: independent. Mark 2024: No, it was Guardian. So the script was, an event scene from one point of view gives one impression seen from another. It gives quite a different impression, but it's only when you get the whole picture that you can fully understand what's going on. And I thought it was, it is one of my favorite ads of all time. I mean, it's brilliant that, that, and in a way, what you just described about. That frames almost the different perspectives and points of view that you can frame, and then you see the whole picture. You get a better sense of it. But anyway, I just wanted to throw that in there. But you ended up, so you ended up at The Guardian Before you ended up at at Henley. So Japan, you come back from there, you could have gone down a completely different path. Given that you're not, obviously the way you've been describing things, everything's not being carefully planned out. As a futurist, you aren't planning your future. How did you end up [00:12:00] there and the Guardian and then become a futurist at Henley? I mean, that's a fascinating sort of little pivot. Tamar: Well, there's, there's also, there's also lots of other jobs. That, that don't make it to LinkedIn? not not because they were Mark 2024: Alright. Okay then. So, Tamar: dubious or, or anything. No. They, they just, they just make the path even, even more blurry. Or, or perhaps not. But when I was at school, I had lots of, or various different jobs, part-time jobs in different places. when I was in the sixth form, so that's 16, 17, 18 it was absolutely the norm to go and work in the department store sales. They would take on temporary staff. so I did that at various different department stores, uh, including, uh, Harvey Nichols, the very fancy store where unfortunately I got fired very quickly. But whatever. But otherwise, I, I, I wasn't fired. I was very good. I think. I also did all sorts of things, [00:13:00] catering, temping, working in canteens, and I also worked at Marplan, which was a Mark 2024: market research agency Tamar: So that was my first brush with market research, and it was really interesting. And then also I worked I, I took a gap year before I went to university and I worked in the London department store. and. It is, it's a fantastic place. I have some strong opinions that I'm happy to share on about, on, on, on where it's gone. But at that point it was still a fairly traditional department store and I worked in the adult games and gift department, and I, I think retail is really fascinating and I have remained. Really interested in retail. 'cause I think it's, it's the, it's the sharp end of consumption. Mark 2024: that was your focus at Henley. Tamar: well, retail and fast moving consumer goods ended up being where I focused. But I did lots of [00:14:00] different project in lots of different sectors. Uh, but they all sort of started to converge, converge around that. So, i've worked at Henley and, and after for almost, I think all of the, of the big global C-P-G-F-M-C-G businesses, uh, Coke and Nestle and Unilever and Rect Mark 2024: clearly it's at the sharp end of what's actually happening in people's lives, and, you know, it reflects people's behaviors and attitudes, what they buy. How they react to the the stories that were told to them by the advertisers and the brands, what was it that, that sparked your interest and curiosity so much? Tamar: I suppose because shops are where you can see a version of humanity that isn't displayed elsewhere. It's neither home and [00:15:00] it's not work and. Personally, I'm not especially in interested in shopping for myself. I, it's not, I know some people really enjoy it and get a lot out of it, but I, I've, I'm much more interested in seeing, in seeing how other people shop and what they do and how they interact and what makes success or, or, or the opposite. I think that shops are, you know, a kind of microcosm of all sorts of interesting rules and trends, obviously about the products, but actually about human interaction and the way people are open to change or their expectations of those micro moments of, of, of of that tiny micro relationship that they have with the sales staff and how that can be [00:16:00] engineered, how it can create a moment of joy or otherwise. I'm also, I also think I think, uh, pricing is very interesting and it's also very accessible. So. I think that the way people respond in those spaces, it's kind of all human. All human life is there in a way. And what's really interesting is how much the death of the physical store was over prophesied. And ultimately now what we keep seeing all the time is purely virtual players wanting some kind of physical space to be able to. an experience and all the rest of it. Mark 2024: you worked at that period of some dramatic change. I mean, we're going through huge exponential change at the moment, but you, your time at Henley straddled the point of pre-internet and to the emergence of the internet and e-commerce. So you must have seen [00:17:00] some interesting sort of trends in terms of changing behaviors. During that, that period. but I suppose people's innate sort of core behaviors and motivations don't change regardless of whether it's online purchases, direct to consumer. We all still have the same motivations and same desires of why we buy brands, not rationally, but emotionally. Is that fair? Tamar: partly yes, partly yes and partly no. I think it's always more useful to focus on people rather than technology, because technology is almost. Limitless and then to think about, well, what consumer need is this technology perhaps answering and trying and guessing how we are gonna appropriate it or fit it in or, or reject it. But actually it does change people and at some really fundamental levels. But the time, the cycles, the [00:18:00] timelines are different. So it would be madness to suggest that mobile phones haven't changed the way we interact and our expectations of time and, and immediacy and what human relationships mean. But it depends on how high you slice the cake. In terms of how granular you look at basic human needs, so that sort of really basic physiological level, which is, those basic human impulses around desire for connection or, or disgust or, or all of those things. So those things do seem to run on, relatively slow kind of evolutionary cycles, but expressed way differently. But if you are thinking about. Say people's expectations of what a, what a somehow meaningful or fulfilling human relationship means That changes at a very different [00:19:00] cycle. So it just depends on, on how far back Mark 2024: Mm-hmm. So you worked at Henley, at that amazing transformational time in Britain. Cool Britannia, the millennium, the emergence of social media, and then ultimately the launch of the iPhone. That very transformative 10 year period that you worked through. what corners were you seeing around then when you're living with this change? Tamar: at the time, I'm not sure that cool Britannia felt like a genuine summary of the zeitgeist. It did feel at the time, as I recall a slightly hopeful label attached. With some political shrewdness a bit of a, a sticking plaster or, I don't know why this phrase comes in, but lipstick on a pig, To, to stuff that actually wasn't, wasn't all that, all that necessarily, all that rosy, I mean, for sure there were, there was a sort of fantastic, phase of creativity in, in, in [00:20:00] music and, and arts that. And a lot of those things have kind of endured and influenced today's music and, and, and so on. So it wasn't, it wasn't nothing. Um. Mark 2024: it was, influencing what was happening in retail. 'cause I just remember working in advertising, we were looking at how, how could you in any way possible connect that. Cultural, as you say, a bit of a, a mini zeitgeist to a brand. It would try and appropriate it borrowed interest and go, I want to connect to that, whether it be through the art of Damien Hurst or be through Blur or Oasis or the Spice Girls. Everyone wanted a piece of the action, you must have been aware of that at the time as a futurist advising clients in retail and in Tamar: It's quite hard to explain succinctly, but I talk a bit about this in the book as well, is that when we are talking about how to understand what's happened, and we often want to be able to pin it on a nice, tidy thing.[00:21:00] So it is interesting you've mentioned Steve Jobs and for sure he was a genius and a fantastic man, but there were many things that combined to make Apple the incredible sort of juggernaut that it is today. And it wasn't just him. it was movements around technology. It was the people around him, all sorts of different stuff. And in a slightly different way, if you, you, you mentioned retail for example. And I would say that, uh, we talked about Selfridges. So self Selfridges became to some extent a very cool British place. And at that time, all the department stores that I would go to or speak to around the world, actually Selfridges was the reference point. So if you went to Ton, if you went somewhere or you talked to the management, wherever it was, it was like, well, we have to see what's going on Selfridges, because there's something special there. And I would suggest that a lot of that was due to, there was a really visionary guy called Victoria who [00:22:00] was put in charge of Selfridges and he had a real grand vision for what the department store could be and for reimagining, what, what is the meaning of this space? And he, he put on these sort of big events. So there was one on Japan. I remember getting invited to. It was just fantastic. It was, it was immersive, it was experiential. It was really forward looking. And I think that while yes, there was this nice broad brush, cool britannia thing going on and maybe had. Not being able, you know, not come at that time. He might have been able to assemble these things and to slightly ride on the coattails perhaps of cool Britannia to, to, get some borrowed halo borrowed glow from all of this. I think that a a lot of it was around you know, that that incredible flourishing of, of British retail and I think some of it still sort of lingers ish. They're not quite. As [00:23:00] gloriously was around particular people, particular visions and creativity and opportunism actually. But, it did filter through to, retail. But I think there was a general. Re-imagining and at that point, a very creative and positive one about what retail could mean in terms of public spaces. Because while the sort of civil space their meaning and their purpose, and all these questions around what what technology and digital technology does to. People's interactions was going on. There's something very leveling about retail and what was really interesting, you know, about Selfridges and, and this is where I think if anyone's interested, I think they've gone wrong actually in quite short, termist is Selfridge as used to be. It was a place you would dress up to go to. It was a [00:24:00] special place, but it was, it was for every, it was for ev, for everyone. and there was a really strong understanding that that yellow Selfridges bag was highly aspirational and it was really well understood that if somebody bought something in that little yellow bag and that was their trophy, then that was fine. Even if they weren't buying a thousand pound jeans or whatever. It was a really, yeah, impressive long term perspective about where, where it could fit in, in British culture, um, And global culture. Actually, I don't think it is. I think that, so it, it's had a sort of a very extensive refit and it's tilted very much towards kind of deluxe. Um, They've got a very understandable focus on wealthy customers from China, from from the Middle East. But it has, in my opinion, [00:25:00] while that it has lost focus to some extent, and that's not a long term strategy because it's now somewhat intimidating when you go in, when you go into the handbags, entrance. I dunno if that's the one you ever go into. And it has no sense of place. the, they still have the beauty playground and that, that is buzzy and exciting and. I think has a lot of sort of interesting spirits, but the kind of hil luxe elements are just sort of empty, cavernous halls. And you could be in Dubai or you could be, you could be in Shanghai. It's not, it's not possible to tell where you are. And perhaps paradoxically, that's actually a race to, that. Race to the top is actually a race to the bottom. Because you'll have to just keep competing and keep, you are very much at the mercy of the kind of. Ude of the luxury market. Mark 2024: So going back to that period in your time at Henley, and looking back on that [00:26:00] and seeing how we live today and how things have transformed, as a futurist, you give your clients' guidance in terms of what prepare for the signals and the trends. Do you think? Can you look back and go, oh yeah, I was right there, or I was wrong there and I was wrong for that reason. do you do that Tamar: so I can thi I can think of, of, of one example, which was, well, two actually, which I remember. Articulating as, as things that I felt were quite important. One of them went into a, a, a very long and involved project for for Coca-Cola in Atlanta, which was around saying that companies would end up becoming increasingly political and would have to take a stance on all sorts of political things, which turned out to be absolutely right, which was, which feels really prescient. Mark 2024: I suppose the interesting thing of where you are now and what you've been doing since you left [00:27:00] Henley to do your own company future real. You've got much richer data sources to pull on than you maybe had back then. The world has changed and has, so I suppose I'm jumping forward a wee bit, but has it become easier to do what you do today given the access to data, or has it become more overwhelming and difficult because there's so much data? Tamar: Well, there is so much data, and actually I initially thought 'cause I, I used to cast myself as a, as a, as a trends spotter. And then, uh. Initially I thought, my goodness there's so many people who are now spotting trends and doing all the rest of it that I thought maybe I'd be out the job. But actually what's happened with this kind of over overwhelming wave of data is yes, it's very accessible, but a you, your, your job is, is, is to find some meaning and pattern, as you say, pattern [00:28:00] spotting meaning in, in all of this noise, but also, the creating that future picture, that plausible scenario, that is not the end of the story actually. I mean it is all very nice but it's not useful. So I came up with and have sort of stuck to this, this phrase of it's not about being right, it's about being ready. So fine if you're say this is what's gonna happen, but unless you say, well, what on earth do you do with it? Then it's, then it's just a sort of a nice, a nice to have and it's much better to be able to consider different options and create some kind of strategy so that you are ready for whichever one turns out. Mark 2024: how does that affect their operational. Strategies, does it have to mean that they have to become more agile, ready for rapid [00:29:00] change? is it is the secret in the implementation and are the companies that do. Prepare and to do, react to the types of trends that you identify and the signals you give them. Is there a difference in terms of the way that they're structured or how they operate between the ones that do it well and the ones that don't do it well? Tamar: yes. Yes, I do. And yes, there is. There is, there is a difference. But if we take a step back for a second, the process itself is, is really important. what I've come to realize, having done this quite a lot for many different companies, and I've done a lot of scenario planning and different futures projects, is that the more. That you as the consultant of the out, you know, the official outsider, what whatever you, you know, however you cast yourself could know about the company or the organization and the more that the organization [00:30:00] itself can be involved in considering their own future, the better it's gonna be because it, it is quite possible to sort of create a set of scenarios and just give them to people. And, then I would say largely they just gather dust. And they say, well, okay, but there's actually the, the process itself is, is very, very important and. Quite often if I mention that I'm a, a futurist, when I meet people and they say, oh, what's gonna happen or what's in the future then? And I don't have a ready answer a because it's such a massive question and I'm always slightly flawed by that, but also because the answer to that question will be different for. Nestle than it is for Unilever, and it will be different within Unilever for, you know, home care versus personal care, blah, blah, blah. Because the future for even one business unit will be very different. Because their present is very different, and the limits of where of possibility for them is different. And, and the [00:31:00] vision of, of the leader , and the permission of the board and all of these things will mean that what might be a very sensible and plausible outcome for one department is, is highly implausible for another. So I think that What's great about having, , set, having one's own company, organization, whatever, is that at times I've had the privilege of being allowed right in into an organization. And the more it's sort of tailored to them, then ultimately the more bespoke what comes out at the other end is to them and their future. and the more it can kind of make sense. And find traction and hopefully become something useful. So, but the other thing I I would also say is that in some ways all of these different techniques, I mean, I, I, you know, I like scenario planning. I think it's got an interesting history and it's, and it's a really useful tool and, and it's been done a lot. And there are many [00:32:00] processes to fit. Different needs and different situations,but the good thing about the future as well is especially if you, if you're looking not next year or the next two years, but say five years or 10 years, hence it's really liberating. Because normally when people do strategy sessions or annual rethinks and budgets and all the rest of it, inevitably they're thinking about their own personal stuff and what office they're gonna get and, and, and their budgets and their promotions and, you know, all sorts of things that any human would think about when, when they're in one of these organizations. But when it comes to five years down the line, or 10 years down the line, there's a kind of. Understanding that it, it may, it's not about them. Actually. They may well not be there. It's about the future of whatever that organization is. Mark 2024: you use that word being ready. that's a, being in a, a, a [00:33:00] preparedness, a sort of st almost like a, a static state. I wonder if, you know, you, you say, a lot of times these reports will end up just gathering dust. Therefore, people don't implement the insights that have been generated by the work people like you do. I wonder if there's a companies that do implement well, there's an intentionality that they go, okay, here are three potential futures. We're gonna go after this one. And they start to implement it and it becomes str from strategic foresight to strategic planning and strategic implementation. Tamar: it is quite interesting that you see readiness as passive. ' cause I don't see readiness as passive. Mark 2024: mean, I'm, because Tamar: I see it as quite I think, I think I, I see sort of readiness as quite lean forward actually. And I think that when you do, when you consider mul, yeah, sorry, please. Mark 2024: I agree. But being [00:34:00] a runner get ready, get set, you, you haven't gone yet. You're just, you're, you're ready. You're prepared. you've done the training. You've done the, the groundwork, you've got the right mental attitude, but you're waiting for something to click in, something to happen, a trigger. you're in a ready state. I'm not saying it's completely passive, but it would imply that there have to have been certain actions taken ahead of being ready. So there has to be something between where you leave people with your. Recommendations and your strategies between there and becoming ready. You can't just suddenly hear your presentations and your one year end of your Coca-Cola, end of your one year report and going, right, okay, we're ready for it because we know about it. You have to then adjust the organization to then be in that state of readiness. The same way that a country would be in the real state of readiness for changes in [00:35:00] geopolitical order or whatever, or impact on of AI or climate. Tamar: that, that's really interesting and. It's really useful that I now understand what your idea of readiness is. It's somebody at the start line waiting, waiting for the, for the ready set, go. Right? So the readiness that I'm talking about is, is, is completely different. It's the ready, it's the training, it's the right shoes, it's whatever you need. And if the weather goes funny, it's some kind of readiness in case, I don't know, your, some, something falls off, something gets in your way. It's, it's, it's a, it's a preparedness and it's not a, it's also not goal orientated, goal oriented, I never know how to say that word. In the way that a races that you get to the finish line actually, because when you mentioned it earlier, you sort of. Framed it as, so there's these [00:36:00] possible futures and we're gonna pick that one and go for it. Mark 2024: Uh, so you're talking Tamar: quite often it is an agility, but it's also what sometimes happens and is actually, I talk about this quite a lot in the book, is that the most useful thing that comes outta say, a scenario planning exercise? Is not that you say, well, if that happens, we're gonna go for it and we're gonna do our absolute best to, to aim for that. It's actually finding the strategy that makes sense across different scenarios, even if it doesn't necessarily mean that it's absolute optimal for one, but it means that there's some kind of risk management and then optimization across. Across more than one. It's like, it's, it's like a, a risk spreading exercise as well. You are not betting everything on, on 24 red. You are actually saying, depending on what, on, you know, we, we have [00:37:00] these sensible things, but also it's not meant to be a, a static finite process. It's not meant to be. Well, we've done it now, so, even if you thought it through a bit more and you say, well, we know that this scenario is emerging because we've, we've worked out that this signal, this particular metric will go up or down or whatever it is. And once it hit that we know that that scenario emerging, you actually have to keep updating it because stuff changes all the time. And I've got, I've got what I think is quite a good example. So. During COVID, something that I think was really amazing and wonderful was how, well, at least in Britain, the supermarkets coped with this absolutely unimaginable scenario. And to some extent yes, we did run outta toilet paper a bit, but the, the food supply was, was [00:38:00] maintained and it, and I think, I think in a way that sort of, it, it's, there's to some extent of course you know that there's a lot of bad stuff that happens or whatever that has happened, but in a way, they're one of the kind of unsung heroes of of, of the stuff that, that kept us all going. That, that maybe we didn't have exactly what we wanted, but there, there was food supply. And in fact I was. Somewhat involved in some scenario planning that one of the really big supermarkets did for for sars. I dunno if you remember, but there, there was a point when we really thought that that be, you know, that that might be something that was sort of top of the, the global economy. And because they had done a load of thoughtful scenario planning about what they would do if SARS emerged, they had kind of rehearsed their responses and so. Mark 2024: Hmm Tamar: when COVID came along, it was not this sudden. I mean, it was a sudden bolt from the blue, but they were able to go through those kind of [00:39:00] steps. And had they not had that, that kind of preparation and that kind of readiness, I think things could have been even worse than they were. Mark 2024: Do you think like what you're describing can apply to individuals in the same Tamar: Well, I do. uhhuh? should ask. No, my, my, my, my, the first book I published, uh, was called Future Scaping and I ed it with Bloomsbury over 10 years ago, 2012. And that was about scenario planning and how people can. I thought could use it usefully in their personal lives. Uh, and I still think they can actually yeah, because I mean, in, in a way this, this, this book now that's coming out soon 'Could', is a logical progression of that in a way. 'cause that was talking about managing uncertainty, albeit not so explicitly. Mark 2024: how do you measure success? Tamar: I think [00:40:00] that there's different things. So there might be what I might personally define as success on a project, but ultimately what's most important is that whatever element that I was involved in. Turns out to be useful and used. And to me that that is, that is sort of the, the, the ultimate thing that I can, I can hope to do sometimes you are called in as a futurist because there's a genuine desire and interest to, to understand what might happen and, and how that the company could move. Mark 2024: Mm-hmm. Tamar: sometimes it might be more about a a sort of back covering exercise risk management being able to say, well, we, we thought this through. It's a kind of anticipation of, of regret perhaps. And making [00:41:00] sure that that, you know, blame does not get apportioned. But. If people find it useful, then yes, that is the ultimate I think. I think there, there's also a thing which is really delightful, that most people work pretty hard and they're incredibly knowledgeable about their domain. They have the domain expertise, and actually, I think a lot of the time could do my job. But all of us, we, we, you sort of, sorry, going back to that outside thing, but you do need somebody to come kind from the outside and maybe help you see the stuff that you haven't given yourself permission to look at and, and, and to notice. And Mark 2024: Mm-hmm. Tamar: so I suppose for me personally. When somebody as, as well as it being useful, that, that, that is, that is the main thing. But also if somebody says, you know, I enjoyed this process and I found it really interesting, and sometimes you can see that it, after that perhaps [00:42:00] first discomfort of, of having to look at what they're doing and think about what the organization is doing and, and, and quite often what emerges is a lot of disagreement. But what people think the company is for or the organization is for. But that once you've sort of got through that thicket, then really seeing people kind of bloom and, and, and, and reconnect with what, what on earth they're going into work to do every day. And that, and that, you know, whether, whether it's a mission driven business or it's really just about the bottom line, if that's what gets them going, and , I think that's, that's quite rewarding. But, if you can, I improve their sort of working life and working outlook and enable people to reconnect with what it is they love about their organization and their job and what they're doing. And that's brilliant. Mark 2024: So let's go from that last book that where you said it could, could apply to people future escaping [00:43:00] to your new book, which is called Could and we'll come to do an interview about that once it's launched, but it's called Could Smart Thinking, the Smart Thinking Handbook for When Nothing is Certain. It's a, it's an unusual title first of all as a futurist. It's about creating greater sense of certainty. You actually got a title that's saying when nothing's certain, but it's actually a, it's actually a a, a title that feels like a manifesto for the moment we're living in right now. Because we are probably living in the most uncertain of times where we don't know where the world's going because of the rapid pace of change. The, almost the exponential ch pace of change that AI is bringing. So I suppose my first question is, what's different about this book versus future scaping? Tamar: Oh, okay. So, future Scaping was much more, was, was really about scenario planning. you know, the history of sonoro planning is, is, is really fascinating. So, it was kind of pioneered at the Rand Corporation by this incredible [00:44:00] guy called Herman Kahn and his group of what became known as the Mega Death intellectuals. Who had had this idea for, you know, at that point the world was terrified of nuclear Armageddon. So Herman Khan's idea was that if we could, we are paralyzed by this to some extent. And if we could imagine what the world would be like beyond this awfulness, then that actually can enable us to, to, to, to think through possible different future. Scenarios, essentially. So that's, that's, um, scenario planning. And I think just the, just the idea of scenario planning, the idea of multiple futures is itself. Very interesting. And that was really the, the focus of the book. And also I had a fabulous research assistant -and we, we tried out the methodology on lots of different people and I interviewed Daniel Kahneman. That was fantastic. 'Cause he just done thinking fast and slow and it [00:45:00] was really much more of a focus on that particular technique. Whereas now. This is sort of more broadly about managing uncertainty. I do mention scenario planning in there, but it, it's not the main focus of the book, but I would push back slightly on your well, a, that you said that being a futurist about making people more certain, I would say one, I, that's true. I think if anything, it's about making them accept you know, be a bit more comfortable with uncertainty actually. Number one, sorry. And number two, Mark 2024: I'm ready. ready. for the. Tamar: you're ready. You are ready. You're ready. Ka great. Not uncomfortable at all. But, uh, also while I agree that there are some particular things that mean yes, the speed of change has accelerated, Mark 2024: Mm-hmm. Tamar: I think it is. Incorrect to just assume that because we know how history because we [00:46:00] know how the end of the story got to it, that the people living through the industrial revolution, the first World War, you know, the, the mainstreaming of, of cars, the printing press. I mean, these were hugely. Terrifying and discombobulating and upsetting events and people lost their jobs and they didn't know what was going on and the world was turned upside down for them. So I think that understanding that humans have adapted through periods of huge upheaval and uncertainty, I find personally quite comforting. so in a way. The future's always looked a bit like this, so, yeah. Mark 2024: you Picked the word could. Rather than should or will. Why did you pick that word? Could. Tamar: Well, so. I don't think that should, I, I quite like the idea of a book called Should. It's just bossing people about telling 'em what they should do. But I'm definitely, [00:47:00] I'm definitely not gonna be the person to write that book because I wanted it to contain the idea of uncertainty, but also to contain the suggestion of a positive outcome. So I toyed with all sorts of different maybe and perhaps, but they sounded too dent. Whereas could, I felt, includes the possibility of energy and positivity and action. You could. and I think that that's quite important because I think that certainly when I've been looking around and, and working on various futures projects and so on, I think people are finding it increasingly difficult to even. Imagine the possibility of a positive outcome. So in the book is about uncertainty, but it's also a lot about willed optimism as well. Mark 2024: I'm sure everyone, there's a aware of the fact that everyone's talking about the AI bubble. And there's a guy in New York who's got I think it's either a [00:48:00] investment fund. I think he's part for a, a. Uh, a financial management company. Uh, I think it's Riddoltz Wealth Management, but his name's Josh Brown. He's quite a character. He's a sort of a, a typical New Yorker, and he's got a podcast called The Compound in Friends, and he talks a lot about, in terms of his way of looking at the markets is it, is like, what, what could go right rather than what could go wrong. So many people in the market and are thinking and looking at things that are happening in with the in the world is they're always going on. What could go wrong and be prepared for that, he said, but it's a very different mental model when you think about what could go right. And it's a binary, it's a binary choice. And I know you're talking, you've used that word could, and I think a lot of people naturally, and I think it's a cultural thing as well, if you Scottish or British, which tend to be a little bit more, can be a little bit more pessimistic, maybe in America that's a much more of a positive o [00:49:00] opportunist, you know, uh, Tamar: Right. Mark 2024: Maybe it's changed recently, but, but that idea of like what could go right. Being prepared for it, and smart, as you say, smart thinking handbook went into nothing certain, but it gives you a certain amount of agency to think. I have the ability to affect the direction the world goes in rather than just being reactive and being ready to, for when it goes wrong. it's a completely different mindset being, as you say, using that word ready, being organizationally ready. For when it goes tits up to saying good, being prepared and intentional and taking action to direct the events that unfold. There's a di I think there's a difference. There's and, and I think it works from a individual standpoint and it works from a leadership standpoint. It's almost like a leadership theory. How do you [00:50:00] want to lead people, whether it's for your, your family, whether it be your team, whether it be your organization or it would be your country. It's, Tamar: There. There, there absolutely is. Yeah. Mark 2024: mm-hmm. Tamar: but it's, I mean, there are things that you can control as a family, as a, as a person, as a organization. And there they're things you can't and. Obviously, in order to understand where you might have agency, you need to have some sense of what is beyond your control. Otherwise, we're all kind of kin news telling, telling the waves to go forward and back or whatever it is. But when it comes to the stuff we can't control, pessimism has no predictive advantage. And when it comes to the stuff that we could potentially have agency in. Thoughtful, as you say, intentional optimism, which is not sort of toxic positivity, you know, about sort of delusional, ignoring the fact that your house is burning down and there's a monster in your garden, or whatever it is. But thoughtful willed, [00:51:00] intentional optimism is definitely an advantage. Plus it's, it's a more pleasant mental space to inhabit as well day to day. ​ Mark 2024: Contagious. Tamar: Hopefully, Mark 2024: well the book's gonna come out when, Tamar: I think it's probably gonna come out next month, December, 2025. Mark 2024: We won't give any more away about the what the actual handbook, what the handbook says. 'cause I'm certainly keen to find out and I'll read it and we'll do a follow up on that. But I wanna just, I'm gonna go back. We, we've already talked about Steve Jobs before, but I'm gonna bring it up again that he had this line, which is you can't connect the dots Looking forward, you can only look looking back and, and it, it feels, it's almost like this. It's the opposite of what you do. 'cause you're trying to connect dots and tell [00:52:00] people how to be ready and how to prepare and all that. And his whole thing was you can't, I think people misunderstand the statement. I mean, he hated deterministic thinking. I suppose if you tried to optimize for clarity today, the idea was you kill the possibilities that only emerge over time, and he was a great believer in. The fact that there's an opportunity cost when you reject sort of strange things or you go on a very planned and specific path, you discount opportunities as they emerge from out of nowhere. And I suppose the word I'd use is serendipity. So the deeper point is that trust and curiosity. are strategies not vibes that you can combine and bring out your, these opportunities that emerge and embrace them with trust and curiosity, and it can lead somewhere you never expected. Now, I don't know if that works for organizations, [00:53:00] but I think it's very powerful for individuals and if you become too deterministic, if you become too. Rigid in terms of going, this is the path I'm gonna take you miss. Opportunities that come emerge outta nowhere. I don't know if I'm just rambling, but it's a, there's something in there. I need to do more thinking around it. Maybe I need to read your book first. Tamar: Yeah, I think, I think there is, there's definitely something in there, but I think there's a load of sort of different threads that are a bit mixed up. So let's say manifesto is not prophecy. And I think that an an opportunity, an opportunism, and so serendipity is neither of those two things. So Mark 2024: That's. Tamar: think that that kind of deterministic view of the future, which is about a unwavering path to where I want to get to, is kind of the antithesis of the. Openness to uncertainty and different [00:54:00] possibilities kind of futurism that I am talking about. And I think that there's a lot of confusion around this because there's no doubt that uncertainty or, or U-turns or whatever it happens to be, are not considered. Attractive or useful attributes in a leader? It's seen as dithering, is that the, the person at the front has to make it very clear that they're driving the bus and they know where the road is going. And it's, it is interesting how persuasive that can be. I'm just, I And because they were written there, they sort of felt like they were true. So there, there, there is a pressure on leaders. To look like they perhaps have more certainty than they do. And regardless of, of what people might say about being authentic and human and, and admitting fault and all the rest of it, I think some of that [00:55:00] still stands, but away from those sort of extreme situations, I think that this very predetermined sense of. Of where things are gonna go is is not useful. And I was kind of wondering about why people seem to be reluctant to embrace the idea of agency generally. 'cause I, I completely agree with you that a lot of that sense has kind of been lost, that we're just these passive recipients of awful stuff that is happening. And I think part of it is because it's quite scary that agency comes with accountability. That you, you, you did something and, and there's a sort of fear that that goes with that, that you are gonna get blamed. But actually, and again, I talk about this in in the book as well, is that not doing anything, no decision is also a decision, is also a strategy actually. So we can't hide from it. But how much better it is [00:56:00] to, to. Feel that I, I certainly find it mu much more comforting to think that the place I've got to, that I, I've had something to do with it, even if it's not a great place. I, I just love that thing that, you know, if you don't miss the bus, miss it running, try, and then if, if you, you might miss the bus, but, , give it a go. Mark 2024: So going back to your word ready, Tamar: Okay. Mark 2024: versus not making a decision. If you're ready, you're just doing nothing. You're ready to react to whatever happens around you. If you're ready to act, you're taking intentionality, you're acting. So I think that's the difference that you're saying with intentionality. With agency, you make decisions, you act on it. That's your readiness. The readiness that is passive is waiting for situations and circumstances to impact you, and then you react to them. Tamar: Right. Mark 2024: not agency, Tamar: Fair enough. Yeah. Mark 2024: Yeah. Tamar: of [00:57:00] readiness. Mark 2024: I think we're gonna leave it there. I think that is a good place to end this, this, this version, this part one of the interview. We'll come back after the book's launched and we'll dive into, I'll have a chance to read it and we'll talk about how could is going to impact. People's lives and, uh, hopefully leaders and potentially even countries mindsets and sense of agency going forward. So for now, thank you very much and we'll follow up soon. Tamar: Okay. Thank you very much. Mark 2024: Excellent.